Part 2 of a 3 part series on identifying Bear Markets..... ...
Continue reading >>Players in the FX and other markets have become accustomed over the past couple of years to identifying trading environments as "risk on" or "risk off". The "risk on" days are characterized by rising stocks, lower bonds, precious metals meandering to down, and the Dollar, Yen and Swiss Francs getting sold versus most other currencies. The "risk off" variety tends to see stocks down and bonds...
Continue reading >>Well, things change; despite some bids underneath by reserve managers (aka, central banks), we're seeing pretty sizable liquidation of spot gold holdings by hedge funds, and the buying interest is being overwhelmed. I continue to see something around 175 in the GLD ETF as a reasonable place to begin building a long position, but given the intensity of the selling, I would be content to watch it...
Continue reading >>An article in the Washington Post suggesting that Fed Chair Bernanke is unlikely to promote any significant new initiatives in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday is generating some comment in the FX market, and negative vibes in equities. http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/ben-bernanke-unlikely-to-announce-big-new-plans-at-jackson-hole/2011/08/23/gIQA28ixZJ_story.html The durable goods...
Continue reading >>Over the past few months, a noticeable trend in the FX market has been the effort made by many central banks, whether from the Far East, Central and Eastern Europe, or Latin America, to diversify their reserves. Most exporter nations count the U.S. as a major trading partner, and the Eurozone is also a significant destination. The sellers accumulate Dollars and Euros, which have to be...
Continue reading >>Well, the Ministry of Finance evidently did not instruct the Bank of Japan to intervene to weaken the Yen last night, nor, apparently, has it done so thus far this evening. In the meantime, dealers took the Dollar up about a Yen from the recent low of 75.95; it is currently trading at 76.85. The Yen was given a nudge down last night when Finance Minister Koda warned that he was getting...
Continue reading >>